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Government as a catalyst for growth

By Amy Wang
EETimes Supply Network
(04/01/2006 10:00 AM EST)





One of the Chinese government's primary objectives in its 11th five-year plan is to transform the country's technology sector from a low-cost, low-margin manufacturing source to a developer of world-class, higher-value-add products. While it doesn't dictate to industry as heavy-handedly as it did in the past, the government still exerts significant influence over sectors of the economy through policies and initiatives.

Four government-led initiatives are of particular note: The 3G project, the transition to digital TV, the Village Phone Program and the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. All will be major factors driving China's electronics market demand, according to China's Ministry of Information Industry.

Consider these data points:

  • 3G project: China will have 11.5 million 3G subscribers in 2006 and 122 million by 2009, according to CCID Consulting, a major government market research firm. The 10x growth will be driven by the 2008 Olympic Games and by business subscribers in major commercial hubs, said CCID. China's homegrown 3G technical standard, TD-SCDMA, will account for 19 million subscribers, or 16 percent market share.

  • Digital TV: The government requires cable providers to begin migrating to digital TV by mid-2006 and is offering financial incentives to accelerate the process. The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television is projecting that 30 million households will upgrade to digital-cable services by the end of the year, which translates into approximately 45 million set-top boxes.

  • The Village Phone Program: Launched in 2003, the project's objective is to connect China's 700 million rural inhabitants by 2020. So far, telecom providers have connected 720,000 villages and have plans to sign up 50 million new telephone subscribers in the next two years using a combination of wireless and wireline technologies.

  • 2008 Olympic Games: To achieve the objective of a "digitalized Olympics," the Chinese government will invest a total of $22.5 billion for the 2008 games, of which $12.5 billion will be used for telecommunications, network establishment and surveillance systems. By 2008, Beijing will have 10 million mobile-phone subscribers, for a market penetration of 69 percent.

    While government programs may be the catalyst, consumer demand is the driver. In 2005, notebook computers, handsets and digital cameras were the three fastest-growing product lines in China in terms of both total output and exports. All three product categories are evolving to higher functionality and higher value-add, both of which play to the central government's plans.

    Consider handsets. The smart-phone market is expected to grow 100 percent this year as embedded MP3/MP4, camera and gaming functions gain popularity. Domestic handset makers such as Sichuan Changhong, Bird and Shenzhen ZTE are targeting the smart-phone market to take advantage of the higher margins.

    "MP3 becomes an essential function in handsets today," said He Shen, an engineer with Taiwan's Sunplus Technology. "Chinese people love this function, so handset makers will require us to provide chips to support it." Sunplus, an audio and memory-chip supplier with sales offices in Shanghai, provides multimedia chip solutions to handset makers that integrate MP3/MP4 playback functions.

    "I see high growth in the smart-phone market," echoed Bread Zhu, president of Linpo Electronics Technology, a Shanghai-based electronics distributor and ODM. To serve this market, Linpo has set up a handset unit that provides smart-phone design solutions.

    — Amy Wang

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