Analyst: High-priced hardware will kill Google Chrome
Rick Merritt
EE Times

03/10/2010 8:53 PM EST
URL: http://www.eetimessupplynetwork.com/223500048

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Mobile systems using Google's Chrome software will be more expensive than competing mini-notebooks using Intel processors and Microsoft Windows, according to one analyst. That's one reason why Chrome will not be successful in an expanding mobile systems market that will see multiple winners, said Bob O'Donnell, vice president of client s and displays at International Data Corp.

Google's requirements for systems using Chrome include relatively high performance graphics, accelerometers and other sensors. "PC OEMs say the hardware requirements—still under NDA--will make the systems actually more expensive than a Windows device, yet they don't have anywhere near the applications support," O'Donnell said in a talk at Directions 2010 here.

In addition, Chrome is designed for online use only. However, users of Wintel-based netbooks report they use their systems offline as much as 40 percent of the time. In addition, Chrome runs all applications in a browser, an approach O'Donnell said others have tried but has not worked.

"There's a serious challenge for Chrome, and I don't think people will like it," he said.

O'Donnell was also skeptical about ARM's chances of breaking into any mainstream mobile computing systems such as netbooks and notebooks. "Clamshell systems need Windows or Mac OS because if a system looks like a notebook people want it to act like one," he said.

"I think there are interesting opportunities for ARM with specialized devices because they can have a proprietary OS kernel and other elements," O'Donnell said. "That's an area ARM will have opportunities, but the x86 owns multipurpose systems," he added.

Notebooks and smartphones will continue to be the most successful mobile systems, both shipping in volumes of more than 240 million units a year by 2011, IDC predicts.

Tablet devices will be the most successful of a range of in-between devices shipping as many as 16 million units in 2011. E-books will be a distant second at 6 million units in 2011.

By contrast, ARM-based smartbooks will not exceed two million units a year by 2011 and so-called mobile Internet devices are already on the decline with sales of far less than a million units, IDC forecasts.

Click on image to enlarge.

"Most people are going to have a notebook and smartphone and in the middle there will be for or five categories of devices and each category will have different attractions for different people," said O'Donnell.

Only 1.1 million PC tablets targeting business users shipped last year. New tablet devices like the Apple iPad have an improved user experience and are aimed at consumers. O'Donnell called them a wild card and said Apple alone could sell four million tablets this year.

Despite the fact the iPad includes an e-book reader, many people will prefer dedicated devices using E-Ink displays rather than the LCDs on consumer tablets. "I don't care whose LCD it is, it's a lamp and people don't want to stare into lamps," he quipped.

Mo bile Internet devices are the big losers in IDC's view because they have relatively small 4-7-inch screens, yet are expensive. "This is a category in search of a need," he said.

On the other hand netbooks, also called mini-notebooks, are a clear winner. Now that the products have evolved from 7-inch displays and Linux to 10-inch displays using Windows the category has taken off, shipping 34 million units last year and rising to more than 45 million in 2011, IDC predicts.

Good synchronization technology will be a factor that determines winners in mobile devices, O'Donnell said. He called for a portable universal ID technology that would let users easily access any personal content or service on any device.

"None of these devices will be successful if they are an island," he said. "The only way the world of multi-device ownership works is when you have an ability to synch across devices, so this will separate the men form the boys," he added.

Meanwhile a new kind of eco-system is developing for mobile devices, led by Apple and based on simpler applications. "We need to rethink what the software is, how it runs and is paid for," he said.

Another key piece of the puzzle will be data service plans that allow users to have multiple devices. Telcos hungry to raise their revenues won't offer such plans for some time, but users will demand them, he said.

There no way people are going to go for single-device data plans--one data plan, multiple devices is what people want," he said.